Take heed, dear reader!!!

Book people are a weird lot. They are not great businessmen and I would imagine that other media niches are much deeper in creative talent. Publishing tends to be a passion first, a consumer product business second. No MBA wielding number-crunching Harvard grad would have ever created the business model that exists today. In essence, a tweedy "gentleman's" calling has been struggling to compete with "real" businesses for too long. And today, I am announcing that book publishing as we know it is dead. Bring on the toe tag.

Now it would be way too easy to use the tablet as the catalyst for this demise. (Yes dear reader, I find it hard to write Ipad... oh Steve, didn't your wife ever send you out at midnight to find pads? sheesh...). Many in the book world will bemoan another nail in the coffin of "books"... Honestly, ever since words or images showed up on a screen, TV or Computer, book publishers have worried. And wrung their hands. And forgotten that species that adapt survive.

For the rest of this week, I am focusing on adaption. And though the name just really sucks, let's thank Apple for offering content creators the best opportunity for survival.

Let us "pivot"

Ladies and Gentleman, it is time to "pivot" and move in a perpendicular di-rection. Just as myriad pundits describe Obama's latest shift as a "pivot" I too am making this spiffy move. Pourquoi?

If you care enough about the world of MEDIA to read my bloviations, then you have already accepted the facts. Conjecture requires uncertainty, a future of doubt, of ??????.

From this day forth, these truths will be self evident:

**By next Fall, we will have 4-6 "tablet style" computers in the marketplace.

**The "big guys" -in books and magazines and newspapers-will be fighting to find the best tablet partners.

**EVERYBODY will be charging for everything they can.

**Those who quickly adapt to the new model will flourish.

**Those who don't will die.

The 48 hours that have ROCKED our world!

Change is sometimes a melting ice pack, a lonely polar bear watching the warm water slowly
ring the death knell. The equilibrium shifts oh-so-slowly, a drizzle of honey from the jar to start, then tip a little further-a stream-a little further-a deluge.

If you owned a newspaper 5 years ago, chances are you ignored the rising tide, waiting for the wavelets to stop wetting your pricey wing-tips. Today, if you are breathing, the water is at your chin.

The other kind of change hits like an earthquake. If you were unfortunate enough to wake up last Wednesday in Port-au-Prince, the reality of change was no drizzle.

I happened to have a front row seat to witness the tide roll over a newspaper company, and dear reader, let me tell you it was not pretty. The image of proud men drowning-having pushed the life raft away again and again-brings no pleasure. Hopefully, though, it brings clarity, and enough wisdom to know that it never HAS TO HAPPEN. You can die--or you can change.

Real fast!

Technology begat the computer begat the internet begat e-content begat the kindle begat the tablet.

Capitalism begat technology begat the computer begat the internet begat portable hardware.

Remember this: predatory capitalism entwined with technology has made assumptions moot, old rules obsolete.

Simply: Premium content + a tablet in your backpack = money and opportunity. Embrace now and swim.

And it begins...

The announcement that the New York Times is getting ready to charge money--yes readers, actual $$$$$$$$--comes as no surprise. And if, as rumored, their plan will come hot-on-the-heels of the BIG OH-WHAT-A-SHOCK Apple Tablet launch... Well then. Strap yourself in, tight.

I told you so's are tedious. So instead of claiming some divine connection, some prescience, I will provide the absolute rule of predatory capitalism:"free" is an illusion, a chimera whose claw is in your pocket, fondling your money, even as you celebrate lucre's demise. (I actually talk like that. One of my personalities is a failed thespian...)

We, as an industry of media, of content producers and deliverers, must change the mantra, now. No time to wait. Instead of wringing your hands and wailing about how "there is no money in the 'net" or the even sillier "free is our right", please get with the solution: News will be free, premium, branded opinion and information will require payment.

The quicker we can accept this reality, the sooner this business can find its legs, and start running again.

American pride

The devastation in Haiti is utterly heart breaking to witness. Our remarkable ability as a techno-savvy country allows us immediate images and testimony, painting a canvas of color and sound and blood and misery. Click back in your memory 5 years at a time: No Smartphones or Twitter, no blogs or streaming video, no news websites, no real internet, no news dedicated TV. Think 6 o'clock network broadcasts. Tomorrow's newspaper. Weekly magazines. Radio....

I have looked into the eyes of a boy, maybe 10 years old, gesturing towards the cameraman, "please help me, get this chunk of building off my leg". I have seen him 10 times, 20 times, his eyes crawling into my brain and heart, burning somehow into my deepest place.

To my media blog readers: we should never have to pay for news. Whether you are watching on a small TV in your kitchen, or you are looking at a super-duper slab of goog-azon screen, the world should unfold before us with blood or beauty, neither Murdoch nor Microsoft standing in the way of truth.

If you want a particular opinion or view, a twist or turn, from seer or soothsayer... you should be willing to pay.

To my politics readers: Damn, I am PROUD of America today. No country or people reaches out faster better stronger than we do. The United States of America is at its finest when a broken people in a broken country need help. No collateral damage, no Blackwater, and no damned Drones. Just generous people who care

Tablet Tablet, who's got the tablet?

I am going to make this easy for all of us. Because honest to god it is so freaking simple. We are going to posture and whine and bleed for a few years, but trust me please. I am going to save you a TON of sturm und drang. And I am going to do it in... Aaaarrgghh, I hate limiting my chance to blather! But... ok. 3 sentences. (with lots of commas and dashes!)

Within 3 years-call it 2014-we will all have a "reader" in our lives, in our backpacks, in our briefcases. It will be more fabulous than we can imagine-thin and light and oh so cool-with color and sound and speed. The "reader" will be a touchscreen, 8 inches or so, will be either from Apple or Google/Android-I don't think Microsoft will be a big player-and we will read magazines and websites and email and books--lots and lots of books.

Everybody still breathing? Cardiac arrests dealt with? Shock paddles back in the box? Good. Have a drink. Check back, same channel.

A big bump in the road... but after the bump the road will be flat and fast!

I love Seth Godin. Nobody pushes at my brain and inspires quite like Seth. You should read his blog.

There is a problem though. Seth imagines the world through the rosy tint of FREE CONTENT. Now, I can argue his ideas pretty well. To a point. When he thumbs his nose at DINO (reminder-DINO is our special code for the traditional publishing industry) and puts his books out as E first, free to boot, I cheer! Good job dude!

That he then lets his publisher do a hardcover and, some many thousands of units later, he gets a big check. Bravo!

But if you aren't Seth Godin, with a fabulous career as speaker and business owner and all around fricking genius--you need to get PAID FOR YOUR WORK.

So, what does this mean? Can we wait for this sea change to sort itself out?

We must wait. Flux like this requires a long view. If you write for a living, or own content, stand up for your work. Don't feel bad because you can't do it for free! Quality WILL win the day. Whether it is on the new ISlate or the zippiest network/site/tablet blahblah.

Get on the sharp side of the knife, and don't slow down. Capitalism will win. It always does. There WILL be LOTS of money for those who become part of the solution. Just ask Seth.

part 3--Pity the poor publisher!

Digital Dilemma. Digital Dilemma. Digital Dilemma. Dearest reader, please, sayittentimesFAST! Go ahead! Betcha can't...

Around 3am I slowly awoke, only to realize I was writing this damn blog in my sleep. As I reached for my super secret special undercover touch screen unit-a prototype of the rarest kind, made of unobtain-e-um and carbon fiber, featuring an e-reader so fabulous, so incredible, made by Micro-Apple-Plastic Logicians-so freaking monumental, if word got out, paper books would self-immolate, and oh. oh sorry, chill. THAT was in my dream.

So I grabbed Mr. Iphone and wrote this provocative line: THE HARDCOVER WILL BE THE FIRST TO GO! Oh man, so scary! Publishers throughout the world rolled over, 5,000 thread egyptian cotton sheets rustling, I HEARD IT I am telling you! Ugh! Like, man, I am starting to feel real bad, real guilty! Pity the poor publisher...

From this moment forth, until my thougts run dry, let's call the gasping old
book biz DINO. Ok? So DINO needs Hardcovers, oh yes. Do reg-lar folks?

Hardcovers are not fun to carry. They take up so much space in our
backpacks and brief cases and purses and man-bags. (dirty secret: I
loooovveee man-bags. I have, like, 20 or something. I am not normal).

They also cost way too much. In particular, if you just laid down 3 or
4 large on an e-reader, me-thinks your hardcover buying days are
numbered. And when we all have the same snazzy tablet in our bags,
color and wi-fi with magazine and newspapers and porn and gps and
pictures of Tiger and that endless line up of these so-SO hot babes
etcetc- FACE it! No hardcovers! Gonzo!

Quiz: how much more than a paperback does it cost to print a
hardcover? Oh reader, I know I am asking alot of you. Really. You lead
a busy life. You don't want to spend too much time on this. So, I will
answer! Me me, call on me! The answer is??? Not much more. If you are
printing a bunch? Not much more at all... Bbbbbuuutt hey! Don't they COST like double? HHHmmmmmm.... This wicket is wicked sticky.

Round 2=digital dilemma

I have recovered. I think. I may find myself in another state of panic (why didn't I become an investment banker for christ's sake?) but please, stick with me. It will all make sense soon... promise.

Our poor publishing guy, or gal-lets call her Sandy (cause she hides her head is in sand)- has invested a few million bucks of the companies money on digitization. Unlike the little guys, who are working hard to digitize and not go broke doing it, Sandy has everything wrapped up. Fast digi-workflow, big freaking server full of files, hell, even a team of e-experts on staff. What is sandy missing though? Come on, everyone say it together now... PROFIT!

Remember yesterday's scary half-assed show-me-the-money diatribe? I don't, really, have the intestinal fortitude to do it again, so try it yourself! The great river in Seattle (think. oh yeah!) says $9.99 is THE retail price. And they will NEVER take a short margin. So, call it 5 bucks-give or take 50 cents-for Sandy to plug into that nasty P&L. Guess what symbol and color are at the bottom? Try "-" and RED!

What is a publishing gal to do? Why, "let us keep our BEST books from the people! WE are the publisher! We have never thought of consumers before! Why start now? And hey! That e-book thing is a fad, anyway..."

Lunch time! next visit, find the solution!

The E book dilemma-and why book publishers are STUPID!

There is a certain power that comes from being a "consultant". Simply put: you can take pot shots at almost anybody! And in this time of change or die transition, I can have a field day with the varied cast of characters who still don't "get it". Of course, we all know that bridge-burning can come back to haunt... So, maybe I will avoid names and if needed, employ aliases...

First, my bona fides: I have been publisher of something like 3,000 books. Give or take a 100 or so.I have signed all of those deals, and looked at every P&L. Please, dear reader, trust me. I know stuff.

And I will speak the dirty secret that plagues the book world every day: the book publishing financial model SUCKS. There is rarely any profit. Very few books-and I mean VERY few-make any money. If tomorrow morning, 9am sharp, book publishers stopped publishing products that were "non-profit", there would be lots of production folks, and designers, and editors, and, like, LOTS of book people who suddenly began spending all day at Starbucks.

With that said, lets emphathize with the poor, beleagured publishing folks. Follow this bouncing ball with me! A $20 retail book averages a $9.50 payment to the publisher, which gets whittled on by various additional fees to maybe $9.00. Books are fully returnable (bad idea Bennett!) so you can expect 25% back from the retailer-a boatload more if you get mass market distribution (If Price Clubs buy big, get your warehouse workers ready!)

Then comes author royalty>PPB>distribution>sales>marketing. (I am, like, making myself sick... sigh...steady boy!). Then you gotta pay every body and pay rent and take agents to lunch and pay to go to BEA and stand around and so much more.

I am taking a valium break.

E-Book Readers, Tablets-The future...

My family members have always been early adopters of cool techy stuff. My mom always led the way, from the first little PC hooked up to a crappy black and white TV, to today's constantly used PC/Color scanner/printer etc. At 83 years old, she continues to learn and expand her computer universe.

Back in 1998, Mom jumped on the E-book bandwagon with the Rocket. I was 12 years into my Random House stint,and if there was much of a hue and cry, I don't recall it. (I'd wager there were a few doomsayers...). I do, however, remember her excitement at using the hardware, and I am quite aware that she continues to LOVE the rocket, even though I shelled out 350 bucks for the first gen Sony Reader. Why? She wants it back-lighted, 'cause she like to turn off the light and read in bed! No fancy grey-scale "looks just like the book" argument holds water with her. The Sony gathers dust...

This leads me to make a bold statement: The Kindle will be but a blip on the radar of e-reader history. All of the hoopla will shift, quickly, to the piece of hardware that gives consumers what they want. Full color, fast internet, magazines, newspapers, and yes, a backlight.

The fact that Amazon will fail in it's attempt to control the content may be more of a factor. More later on that.

Change or Die!

What better way to start a new decade than to create a new outlet for thought, conversation and action? Could there be a better time to put 30 years of expertise to work? A better time to rock the sinking boat? Nah. Perfect timing.

2009 has blessedly dropped the curtain on a pretty screwed up decade. Personally, the 10 years since 2000 have been rocking. Great jobs, fast cars, and lots of luck (though ya make your own luck, of course.) And 2 fabulous kids. And Blah blah and blah. It is 2010. Onward.

The business of MEDIA is the focus of this musing. And this is the opening salvo: change now, or die.

And the positive twist? Change and prosper. Change and grow. Change and live.

These seem to be rather simple choices. Yet, huge businesses run by smart people have faltered, badly, by looking backward--by choosing to ignore their customers, by believing that engines tuned in a different time would continue to drive the limo wherever the suit in the back wanted.

Here is the newsflash for everybody with their fingers crossed and placed bets on the past: time to change. If not, please get out of the way.